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M94A2310.TXT
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1994-10-25
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Document 2310
DOCN M94A2310
TI HIV/AIDS in French Guiana: modelling the epidemic.
DT 9412
AU Sobesky M; Nadal JM; Pradinaud R; CISIH, CHG of Cayenne, French Guiana.
SO Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):333 (abstract no. PC0266). Unique
Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94370265
AB OBJECTIVE: To project the number of HIV infections and cumulated AIDS
cases in French Guiana through the year 2004. METHODS: the epidemic has
been modelized separately for 2 groups, the haitian and the non haitian
group. A reference scenario has been defined on the assumption that
present trends will continue unchanged; pessimistic and optimistic
scenarios have been also determined. For the haitian group, a linear
method based on the last known incidence rate has been used and provides
the number of cumulated AIDS cases, alternative scenarios are based on
the incidence rate. For the non haitian group, a dynamic population
model (D. PUZIN, A.J VALLERON) has been used; it provides an estimation
of the number of HIV infected persons AIDS excluded, AIDS cases and
deaths; alternative scenarios have been determined based on prophylactic
therapies and prevention practices. RESULTS: Under the reference
scenario, in 2004, the number of cumulated AIDS cases for the whole
population would amount to 1330; in case of optimistic and pessimistic
scenarios, this number would amount respectively to 1230 and 1500. The
number of HIV infected patients AIDS excluded has been determined for
the non haitian group; this number would amount 650 in 1993 then would
decrease to 500 through the year 2004. In case of a pessimistic and
optimistic scenarios, the number of HIV infected patients would amount
respectively to 900 and 400. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: The modelization
of the HIV/AIDS epidemic including alternative scenarios will greatly
help health managers and medical practitioners to project the medical
and social needs for HIV infected patients. The results of modelling in
our country are probably underestimated because the 2 groups have been
modelized separately; furthermore they are strongly dependent on
immigration. Some other models including immigration data and contacts
between the haitian and the non haitian group should be used to
determine accurately the HIV infected population in French Guiana.
DE Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/ETHNOLOGY/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/
TRANSMISSION Computer Simulation *Developing Countries Disease
Outbreaks/*STATISTICS & NUMER DATA Forecasting French
Guiana/EPIDEMIOLOGY Haiti/ETHNOLOGY Human HIV
Infections/ETHNOLOGY/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/TRANSMISSION HIV
Seroprevalence/*TRENDS *Models, Statistical Population Dynamics Risk
Factors MEETING ABSTRACT
SOURCE: National Library of Medicine. NOTICE: This material may be
protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).